The era of the automated car is on the horizon

There is a vision of the future you may have heard about: Computer-controlled cars whizzing around the interstate at the speed limit, still bumper to bumper, in rush hour. The future may arrive so soon it will leave your head spinning. But before it does, there are a whole lot of issues to address.

The era of the automated car, something akin to having an onboard computer perform as your chauffeur, awaits its moment like a morning sun just below the horizon. There are prototypes on the streets, states that allow test models on the highway and projections that you will be surrounded by them — or inside one — in little more than a decade.

A pair of assessments last month — a comprehensive review of autonomous vehicles by the Washington-based Eno Center for Transportation, and an essay by Robert Poole of the Reason Foundation – provide a crystal-ball glimpse of the barriers and benefits ahead.

“I appreciate the potential of autonomous vehicles,” Poole wrote. “But I am amazed and appalled at some of the hype about likely benefits being spread by people who should know better.”

He goes on to question predictions of a dramatic drop in car ownership, reduced need for parking, the rapidity with which the new vehicles will win the hearts of American drivers, the cost to taxpayers of equipping highways with necessary electronics and the notion that drivers will be able to nap or play games during the commute to work.

The Eno Center study, co-authored by Daniel Fagnant and Kara M. Kockelman of the University of Texas, dissects the promises and potential pitfalls.

Autonomous vehicles, also known as AVs, already are on the road. Those test models will evolve into production cars by 2020 — Volvo, Toyota, Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen and Nissan are working on them — and be on the mass market a couple of years later. Nevada, California and Florida have taken fledgling steps toward regulating AVs.

The story of exactly how they work must wait for another day, but consider how much of the technology already is coming off the assembly lines. Each year, more cars are produced with sensors that detect lane changes, backup distances and measure the space between your car and the one just ahead.

If you’ve moved much beyond the Studebaker era, your car was built with a computer that keeps track of all that and a great deal more. Before you know it, home computers will be communicating directly with dashboard computers via short-range transmitters that use dedicated bandwidth to send and receive information 10 times per second about where the vehicles are and what they are doing.

That technology works — there was a test demonstration in Maryland this year — and only needs radio hookups and public policy decisions before it rolls.

Once cars and trucks begin a robust conversation about where they are and what they’re planning to do — along with chit-chat that draws in stuff like traffic lights, congestion reports and some road conditions — do they really need a human to boss them around?

Maybe not, but maybe so.

On the plus side, the Eno Center report points out, 40 percent of fatal crashes involved alcohol, and an AV can’t drive drunk. Overall, more than 32,000 people died in collisions in 2011, and AVs would reduce that number by a lot. A computer-linked systems of AVs could also reduce congestion and air pollution.

AVs would increase mobility for the disabled, elderly and young people (soccer moms might be replaced by soccer AVs). After dropping off passengers, cars could be sent to park themselves in more remote, less expensive places.

Consider, however, a minefield of caveats extrapolated from the Eno report.

Would you fly in an airplane without a pilot? Why not? The “pilots” of drones mounting attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere are sitting a half world away. Commercial planes can be flown the same way. Are you ready to take a back seat in your own car?

How much are you willing to pay for chauffeur-like luxury? There are all sorts of estimates, but it might add $25,000 to $50,000 to the sticker price in the early years of production. After a decade, the best guess is that might fall to an added $10,000. (There might be savings on insurance and fuel costs to help balance that out.)

Are you ready to trust a bunch of computers with your life? Is that a deer, an empty cardboard box, a child, a cyclist or a pedestrian that the sensor is warning your computer about? Should the computer decide what to do or should you?

Ethicist Patrick Lin says its a variation on a classic case study.

“On a narrow road, your robotic car detects and imminent head-on crash with a non-robotic vehicle,” Lin wrote. Is it “a school bus full of kids, or perhaps a carload of teenagers bent on playing ‘chicken’ with you, knowing that your car is programmed to avoid crashes?”

The computer decides to swerve to avoid the collision, hits a tree and you die.

“At least with the school bus, this is probably the right thing to do,” Lin said, “to sacrifice yourself to save 30 or so school children. The automated car was stuck in a no-win situation and chose the lesser evil. . . . It’s one thing when you, the driver, make a choice to sacrifice yourself, but it’s quite another for a machine to make that decision for you involuntarily.”

What will the jury decide? In a lot of situations, drivers are not held at fault if they make less than the best decision in a split second under duress. Will the legal system be just as forgiving of a computer that’s using an array of sensors and software to inform its decision?

What happens if this vast computer network that controls every vehicle on the road gets hacked? The evidence du jour seems to suggest that few computer systems in the world are immune from penetration. Could al-Qaida get into the network and instruct all vehicles to accelerate to 70 mph and swerve left?

Will computers in cars put an end to hanky-panky? Will all that data being pumped about your whereabouts from your car into somebody’s cloud be Nirvana for divorce lawyers? And those who follow a more moral path also have a right to know where the gathered information of their travels will be stored, who might have access to it and how it might be used.

The Eno Center report sums it up: “The proliferation of autonomous vehicles is far from guaranteed.”

2014 GMC Acadia crossover has lots of space, plenty of power

Some vehicles try to please everyone. This feature for that person, that feature for this person, etc., in an effort to gain large sales numbers.

Other vehicles serve a certain purpose and target group and don’t fluctuate to try to reach the masses. The 2014 GMC Acadia falls squarely in the second category — and is aimed at large families and folks who lug around a lot of gear. I recently tested a 2014 Acadia Denali and I’ll let you know about my experience and who might want to
pick one up.

LOOKS, INTERIOR

One glance at the 2014 Acadia and you know what it is, a large crossover SUV that is going to pack in a lot of folks and cargo.

Inside, there is plenty of room, and shockingly even good legroom in the back seat — a rarity even in large vehicles. The seat setup I had was 2 in front, 2 in the middle and 3 in back, so you can fit a total of 7 folks. You can also opt for a bench seat in the second row to make it an 8-seater. The second and third rows of seating are adjustable to make room for anything you might want to carry around in the back.

My test vehicle included the options of a sunroof and HID (high-intensity discharge) headlamps.

There is a power rear liftgate, and a trailer hitch if you plan to do some hauling, which is quite likely among the folks who will want to pick up one of these vehicles.

The steering wheel was wrapped in leather, with wood accents. Audio controls embedded on the wheel are easy to use and improve safety by keeping your hands on the wheel.

With the Denali trim level, you get a more luxury look and feel inside than you might find in the lower trim levels of the Acadia.

ENGINE, HP

The 2014 Acadia features a 3.6-liter V-6 engine, with numbers of 288 horsepower and 270 foot-pounds of torque.

The ride was powerful but still somewhat nimble, and pretty quiet regardless of road conditions outside. Acceleration was impressive for
such a large vehicle, and the towing capacity (5,200 pounds) is another aspect that will keep people interested.

I had the all-wheel drive model, but all versions of the Acadia come in front-wheel drive options too, and you save a couple thousand if you go that route.

MPG

The biggest downside when you get a large and powerful ride is limited mpg. The official numbers on the Acadia I tested were 16 mpg in the city/23 on the highway, 18 combined.

The fuel tank is 22 gallons, so you’re talking a maximum range of about 350 miles in the city per tank, or more than 450 if you’re on the highway constantly. These numbers are pretty unspectacular, with some of the crossover competition stepping up in the mpg category in recent years.

TOUCHSCREEN, ETC.

The optional touchscreen in the 2014 Acadia is pretty easy to navigate, though not the absolute best in-car system I have seen. I do like the integration of Pandora Radio, which allows you to access the full app from your touchscreen and keep your hands off your phone while driving, a safer option.

The system in use is GM’s Intellilink system, which allows you to link your phone to the vehicle via Bluetooth.

OTHER TECH FEATURES

I was a big fan of the Head-up display on the Acadia — similar to one used in Cadillacs and other GM vehicles. This is a reflected image floating in space directly in your eye-path, and lets you look straight ahead and see the speedometer info reflected, rather than looking down and away from the road. This is a great safety improvement GM has included on its vehicles in recent year.

You get 6 months of OnStar with the Acadia, then you have to pay if you want to continue. USB ports are included on all trim levels, and can be used to charge
your electronic devices.

The rear-view camera was not the biggest I’ve seen, but was still a big help when backing out of a tight spot. I also had some helpful safety features on the test vehicle, including: Side blind zone alert, rear cross traffic alert, forward collision alert, lane departure warning, rear child security door lock and the Stabilitrak stability control system with traction control. Not all of these are standard, though. With all of these in place, it’s pretty hard to find trouble on the roadways.

Curiously, the vehicle was not push-to-start, despite all of its other features.

MUSIC

Higher trim levels of the Acadia feature a premium Bose audio system, and on all versions you get three free months of Sirius satellite radio, then you must start to pay for the service (which I would recommend, as it best regular radio by leaps and bounds).

NAVIGATION

There is an optional navigation system, which also comes with rear-seat entertainment via a TV screen for the kids in the back that would be very helpful on long trips. This adds over $2K to your total, so you have to choose whether it’s worth it.

WARRANTY, SAFETY

The Acadia has a 5-year/100K powertrain warranty; and comes with 2 years/24K of scheduled maintenance. Also, GMC vehicles are regularly among top safety picks. The Acadia has a full complement of air bags, tire pressure monitoring system and a lot more keeping you safe.

PRICE

My test vehicle was the top-of-the-line Denali luxury trim level and started at $48,675. Once the navigation and rear-seat entertainment, tintcoat paint job and destination charge were added, the total was $52,335. If you’re on more of a budget, there are multiple trim levels available, and a base 2014 Acadia can be yours for roughly $35K. That big price spread, or course, means you’ll lose features and options as you go further down the trim levels, but the base Acadia still offers you the same strong motor you’ll get at the top level.

If you’re looking for similar style vehicle for a lower starting price, GM’s Chevy Traverse is one alternative to consider (coming in at just over $30K to start).

BOTTOM LINE

The 2014 GMC Acadia Denali is a big, bold machine that is capable of carrying a lot of people around and getting you and all your cargo there smoothly and in style. It is not something you’re going to pick up if you’re in the market for a grocery-getter or a high mpg vehicle. But if you’ve got a big brood and want something strong and safe to carry them around in, the 2014 GMC Acadia is defintely worth a test drive.

Lexus debuts new sports coupe with goal to broaden appeal

The luxury Japanese car company hopes that the RC coupe will broaden the brand’s appeal when it makes its first official public appearance at the upcoming Tokyo motor show.

Described as a “concept-to-reality” coupe — meaning that with a few tweaks and changes a production version will be hitting the road in the not too distant future — the RC is a concerted attempt by Toyota’s luxury division to boost its desirability among existing customers and those new to Lexus.

The company is yet to publish any performance statistics, but has confirmed that it will be officially unveiled at the Tokyo Motor Show on November 20 with two engine choices, a 3.5-liter V6 and a 2.5-liter hybrid powerplant, both of which will highlight the car’s “fun-to-drive” character.

For now, Lexus wants us to focus on its appearance and it is certainly striking, thanks to prodigious use of sharp, angular intersecting lines, however, the huge front grille is bound to polarize opinion. What is certain though is that it will have a level of build quality and reliability to match anything currently being manufactured in Germany.

This reputation for quality has helped Lexus to become a serious competitor to BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Cadillac in the luxury car market. However, until now, its sportier offerings — with the notable exception of its LFA supercar — have left a lot to be desired.

Despite an eventual price tag of $445,000 the LFA was so technologically advanced it required 10 years of research and development time, meaning that the company actually made a loss on each of the 500 examples it offered for sale.

If The RC Coupe offers just a smidgen of the performance, handling and thrills of the LFA, then most drivers will be able to look past that huge grille.

Mercedes puts a $60 million price tag on better customer service

A Bellagio casino staffer wheeled $60 million in poker chips onto the ballroom stage to show the value of improving service at U.S. Mercedes-Benz dealerships.

The chips represented the bonus dealers can earn for higher customer-service ratings. Daimler AG’s Mercedes explained the happy-customer bounty at the dealers’ annual meeting in Las Vegas last year. The company is improving how it surveys customers, and the stores ranked in the top half will divvy up the extra cash. As U.S. sales grow, so will the pool.

German premium automakers are introducing a wave of initiatives, big and small, to help the shopping and service experience match the luxurious and pricey vehicles they sell. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG’s BMW is adding so-called genius shopping assistants, like those at an Apple store. Volkswagen AG’s Audi is expanding hours and adding services. The three rank near or below average in dealer-shopping experience, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

“We’ve languished in the middle of pack the last 10 years” in terms of service, Steve Cannon, head of sales for Mercedes-Benz in the U.S., said in an interview. “It’s almost cognitive dissonance to say Mercedes-Benz is in the middle of the pack.”

The three brands rank in the top six for appealing vehicles, according to a separate J.D. Power survey. When it comes to customer service, the rankings are led by Japanese and American brands. Toyota Motor Corp.’s Lexus rank first, followed closely by Nissan Motor Co.’s Infiniti. General Motors Co.’s Cadillac and Ford Motor Co.’s Lincoln rank third and fourth.

“As the products get better, the biggest differentiator in this ultracompetitive market will be the customer experience and the absolute power of the brand,” Cannon said.

Every sale counts as Mercedes and BMW duel again this year to be the top-selling luxury brand in the U.S., having pulled away from Lexus. BMW has sold the most luxury vehicles in the U.S. the past two years, based on reported sales. By vehicle registrations, Mercedes topped BMW last year, according to researcher R.L. Polk & Co.

Mercedes widened its 2013 lead over BMW in October to almost 5,000 vehicles. The figures don’t include Daimler’s cargo vans and Smart cars and BMW’s Mini brand, which aren’t luxury vehicles. Audi, the fifth-best selling luxury brand, said its sales rose 11 percent in the month. That’s a bigger increase than No. 4 Cadillac and smaller than No. 3 Lexus.

Industrywide sales rose 11 percent in October and 8.4 percent through 10 months, keeping the market on pace for its best year since 2007.

BMW, which ranked below average in the J.D. Power study, is taking a cue from Apple Inc.’s retail stores, where salespeople roam the showroom floor, offering advice with no strings attached.

BMW Geniuses, one or two per store, donned in navy blue polo shirts, will offer advice with no threat of a salesman’s push. They’ll be paid a straight salary or wage with no commission.

The Geniuses are in 19 dealerships as a pilot program. By the end of next year, 500 of them will be working in stores in all major U.S. markets, Peter Miles, executive vice president of operations for BMW of North America, said in an interview. The idea is to address the way shoppers buy cars now, providing a bridge from their online research to the actual transaction with a salesman.

“There’s substance in our engineering,” Miles said. “You have to have the ability to explain that in a way customers are interested in hearing it — or bragging about when they own a car.”

Audi is taking a practical approach, adding weekend and evening hours to let buyers pick up their new cars at times and locations convenient for them. Its new Manhattan store offers valet parking. Audi dealers are using scanners and other technology to speed or eliminate the paperwork required in dropping off a car for service or applying for a loan.

“We spoke to people who fly a lot,” Scott Keogh, president of Audi of America Inc., said in an interview. “You can have wine on a plane and good food. Most people in business class don’t care. They want to know was the plane on time? Was the seat comfortable?

”We zeroed in on this.”

The big German luxury brands are trying to improve service to win over the new, younger customers the brands aim to draw to their dealerships with the most affordable lineup of cars they have offered in the U.S. Younger buyers are more resistant to the car-buying experience, so the idea is that better treatment can keep the experience positive.

”It makes sense that they’re trying to address this now as they bring in the younger generation of buyers, who have proven to be less brand loyal, and more willing to hop around, if they don’t get the service they expect,” said Alec Gutierrez, auto analyst for Kelley Blue Book.

Mercedes is at the early stage of introducing 30 new or refreshed vehicles over the next seven years. Some, like the $30,000 CLA, are designed to lower the brand’s average customer age. Audi and BMW are also targeting new, younger buyers with entry-level cars like the Audi A3, priced at $29,900, and the BMW 1 Series, which starts at $31,500. The top-of-the-line Honda Accord, by comparison, starts at $33,480.

The power of social media also heightened the urgency, Cannon said. Through consumer review websites such as dealerrater.com and yelp.com, a customer’s bad experience can now be echoed exponentially and instantly.

“Through social media, the multiplication tables have changed dramatically,” he said.

Ford scrambles to fill void left by Crown Victoria sedan

Brad Brewer, a Vancouver Police Department sergeant, and Mohamed Zakout, a New York City taxi driver, get wistful when they talk about it.

“A lot of people were really freaked out by the Crown Vic going away,” said Brewer.

“This is a strong car,” said Zakout.

The last Ford Crown Victoria, the backbone of many police and taxi fleets for more than two decades, rolled off the assembly line in 2011. Now, Ford, facing the biggest challenge to its police and taxi dominance in decades, is bringing out an array of cars and sport-utility vehicles to keep those sales going.

“The Crown Victoria was a wonderful vehicle and it was difficult for us to see it have to go away,” Gerry Koss, marketing and product strategy manager for Ford’s North America fleet operations, said by telephone. “We started four years before the end date to work on creating these new products so that the industry would have something that was as good or better.”

The bulky Crown Vic sedan traces its roots to two-door, six-seater coupes in the 1950s. A redesign for the early 1990s took on the Chevrolet Caprice and was embraced so widely that its rival exited the market. The Ford became a fleet staple because it was tough, relatively inexpensive to maintain and roomy enough to accommodate police equipment and luggage.

While sales to fleets usually aren’t as profitable for car companies as those to retail buyers, the Crown Vic underwent few elaborate updates over the years, limiting the cost for Ford to produce them. And the automaker sees value in having its brand associated with being the vehicle of choice among cops who race in to save the day and cabbies whose cars endure the toughest service.

In an age of lighter, more fuel-efficient cars, however, the Crown Vic became a dinosaur.

Ford has new offerings to stretch its police fleet to the broadest it has ever been: from its first-ever four-cylinder patrol cars to an Interceptor utility vehicle equipped with its highest-horsepower engine. The company also has made extensive changes to its Transit Connect van to meet the needs of taxi buyers in the U.S. market.

Still, law-enforcement agencies in markets such as Los Angeles that loaded up on Crown Victorias are being courted by other Detroit automakers. And while Nissan’s so-called Taxi of Tomorrow suffered a legal setback in New York that reopens the market to Ford, other manufacturers also are poised to jump in.

A New York judge this month quashed Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s plan to mandate a uniform fleet of van-like yellow Nissan NV200 cabs, ruling that the administration does not have the authority to dictate a specific vehicle. The Taxi of Tomorrow plan for the city, the largest market for cabs in the United States, will die when the mayor leaves office unless the city wins an appeal before Dec. 31.

The mayor is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

The demise of Taxi of Tomorrow would be welcomed by Ford Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally, who was asked about the city’s taxi market by a shareholder and former New Yorker during the company’s annual meeting earlier this year.

“It’s never over until it’s over, and they are always looking for the latest innovation,” Mulally, 68, said at the meeting in May. When asked by the shareholder if Ford was still pushing to sell taxis for the city, he replied: “You bet.”

Cabbie Zakout, 36, who has driven Crown Victorias exclusively since he began shuttling passengers in 2000, said his next taxi will be a Toyota Highlander because Ford’s Transit Connect drives like “a decoration.”

Ford remains the market’s leader. While researchers such as R.L. Polk & Co. lack U.S. registration data on the taxi business, Ford estimates that it captures about 60 percent of the market, down from about 70 percent in the Crown Victoria’s heyday.

Combined sales of the police-package Taurus sedan and Explorer utility climbed to 16,234 this year through August, already surpassing total deliveries for all of last year, according to Polk. Deliveries of Chrysler’s Dodge Charger sedan and Durango utility police vehicles totaled 8,876 through the year’s first eight months, followed by GM’s Chevrolet Tahoe utility and Impala at 8,793.

More than one-fifth of the cabs in New York, the most populous U.S. city, are replaced every year. Taxi and Limousine Commission rules mandate that taxis retire after three years, or after five for vehicles that run fewer shifts.

James Vasey, the third-generation owner of Cab Management Corp., said he plans to replace the 53 Crown Victorias in his Long Island City-based fleet with Ford’s Transit Connect taxis.

“We have found Ford to be responsive to the needs of our business,” said Vasey, 54, who has been running the business for 32 years.

The Crown Victoria still has a few years before largely going extinct. New York’s orphaned cabs have long found a second life in parts of New Jersey and Long Island, where they’re repainted and rejoin fleets.

“These cars will probably start up mini fleets across the country,” Lorenzo Tulsi, manager at the Wailing Management cab company in Long Island City, said of the last Crown Victorias in New York. He said the garage has sold old cabs to buyers from Canada to Georgia.

Brewer, the sergeant in Vancouver, said one of his colleagues on Ford’s Police Advisory Board bought 1,200 Crown Victorias for the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s department before the car went out of production. The department is starting to exhaust that pool.

“It was the iron maiden of law enforcement for 15 or 20 years,” Brewer said in an interview this month in Dearborn, Mich., where Ford is based. He along with dozens of police personnel visited Ford’s test track, where engineers dedicated to police vehicles ride shotgun with officers and fleet managers and gather information.

The new cruiser of choice may no longer be a beefed-up passenger car like the Crown Victoria or Chevrolet Caprice of yesteryear. Ford’s Interceptor Utility, a souped-up Explorer, has been running at 60 percent of the company’s police vehicle sales, said Jonathan Honeycutt, police vehicle marketing manager. That’s about double the mix that the automaker was anticipating, he said.

“Space is key and durability is key,” Honeycutt said in an interview. “The police guys have so much stuff they have to put in their car. It’s amazing all the amount of equipment: guns, safety items, laptops. The utility, they love it from the standpoint that it’s got more room.”

The Seminole County Sheriff’s Office near Orlando, Fla., owns about 650 vehicles, said John Blackwood, the department’s fleet manager. The county decided last year to replace its entire Crown Victoria fleet with the new Interceptor utility.

“We have a 4,000-pound vehicle that’s actually larger than the Crown Vic, it’s getting 20 percent better mileage, and it’s faster, it stops better, it turns better, and it’s safer,” Blackwood said in an interview.

Still, Seminole County’s fleet plans call for hanging onto vehicles five to seven years from the time of purchase, or 80,000 to 100,000 miles.

“We have a lot of Crown Vics,” Blackwood said. “We’ll keep driving those as long as we can.”

Shutdown slows but doesn't halt US car demand

DETROIT — The government shutdown dampened — but didn’t stall — Americans’ demand for new cars and trucks.

The 16-day shutdown slowed U.S. auto sales in the first two weeks of October, but they picked up speed in the last two weeks. Sales rose 11 percent to 1.2 million.

General Motors, Ford, Nissan and Chrysler all recorded double-digit sales gains, while Toyota, Honda and Hyundai saw smaller increases. Of major automakers, only Volkswagen’s sales fell.

Stable fuel prices, low interest rates and the increased availability of credit pushed people to buy regardless of the political wrangling, said Kurt McNeil, GM’s vice president of U.S. sales.

“All those things that have been driving the economy? They’re still there,” he said.

Pickup trucks sold well as business improved for contractors and other workers. Sales of the Chevrolet Silverado, GM’s top selling vehicle, jumped 10 percent to nearly 43,000, and Chrysler’s Ram truck was up 18 percent. Sales of Ford’s F-Series pickups rose 13 percent and topped 60,000 for the sixth month in a row.

SUV sales were also strong. Sales of Nissan’s Pathfinder, which was recently redesigned, nearly doubled from last October. Sales of the Chevrolet Tahoe and Suburban large SUVs both jumped more than 50 percent.

The weak spot was small cars and hybrids, which have been struggling to win buyers as gas prices fall. Gas prices averaged $3.27 per gallon at the end of October, the lowest level of the year. The national average has dropped 31 cents since Labor Day, according to AAA.

Toyota Prius hybrid sales fell 7 percent while the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid was down 32 percent. The tiny Fiat 500 fell 36 percent.

Sales of Ford’s Focus small car were down 17 percent, while its C-Max small hybrid fell 20 percent. Ford recently announced plans to idle the Michigan factory where those vehicles are made for two weeks this fall because of weak demand.

U.S. consumers have started to gradually shift from smaller, more fuel-efficient cars to larger vehicles, said Jesse Toprak, an analyst with the TrueCar.com auto pricing web site.

Stable gas prices aren’t the only reason, he said. Cheap financing and sweet lease deals have made larger vehicles more affordable, cutting the monthly payments so people can afford them even if gas prices go up.

“History has shown us that consumers in the U.S. would rather buy a larger vehicle given the choice,” Toprak said.

Here are the October results announced Friday:

— Detroit: GM’s sales rose 16 percent, with increases in all of its brands. GM’s revamped Chevrolet Malibu midsize car was up 64 percent, while sales of the Cadillac ATS small car more than doubled. Ford’s sales increased 14 percent. Sales of the Ford Fusion midsize sedan jumped 71 percent over last October after Ford added a factory shift to handle strong demand. Chrysler’s sales rose 11 percent, led by its two most profitable vehicles, the Ram pickup and Jeep Grand Cherokee SUV, which was up 20 percent.

— Japan: Nissan’s sales rose 14 percent to more than 91,000, an October record for the company. Toyota sales rose 9 percent, while Honda sales were up 7 percent. All three companies redesigned their small cars, so sales rose. Sales of Nissan’s Sentra jumped 50 percent, Honda Civic sales improved by 32 percent and Toyota Corolla sales gained 13 percent. Also for Toyota, sales of the recently revamped Avalon sedan more than tripled. Honda’s sales were up 7 percent, helped by strong sales of the new Acura RLX sedan and MDX SUV. Subaru sales jumped 32 percent as sales of the new Forester SUV more than doubled.

— Others: Hyundai sales rose 7 percent as 2014 models of the Sonata sedan and Santa Fe SUV saw increased sales. Volkswagen’s sales fell 18 percent compared with strong growth last year, as its aging cars struggle against newer rivals.

Steep gas price swings make budgeting hard for drivers

Local gasoline prices are swinging up and down ever more drastically, a result of a national fuel system that is operating with a shrinking margin for error.

Jumps of 20 cents per gallon or more in a single day are becoming more common, for example, according to an AP analysis of daily and weekly price changes at 120,000 U.S. gasoline stations tracked by GasBuddy.com. Sixty-three times this year at least one U.S. metro area has seen such a change. Like the 24-cent increase Decatur, Ill. drivers saw on Jan. 26, or the 24-cent increase in Superior, Wis. on April 30, and the 28-cent increase in Henderson, Ky. on Sept. 19.

Not since 2008 have there been so many 20-cent changes. Last year those happened 58 times. In 2011 they happened just 21 times, and in 2010 just 7 times.

“There’s more and more feast or famine,” says Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service and GasBuddy.com.

The problem, analysts say, is a fuel system increasingly vulnerable to short-term shocks. That’s because refiners try to keep stocks of gasoline low to save money, just as other manufacturers aim to operate on a “just-in-time” inventory schedule. The nation has about 26 days’ worth of gasoline demand in storage, compared with 30 to 40 days’ worth during much of the 1980”²s and 1990”²s, according to the Energy Department. Also, there are 143 operating refineries, about half the total from 1980, so, if one has a problem, supplies quickly drop.

That price whiplash has a cost. Spikes in gasoline prices are more damaging to the economy than a slow rise in prices because they undermine consumer confidence, economists say. Drivers may be pleasantly surprised when prices slide lower, like they have recently — the national average is at $3.28, its lowest level of the year. But they don’t know when the price might bounce back up, and increases are almost always sharper than decreases. That makes it harder to budget for the daily commute, or know whether dinner out or a new appliance will be affordable.

These dramatic local price swings are happening despite relatively stable oil prices and a national average gasoline price that has hovered around $3.50 per gallon for three years. In 2008, the last time local prices were this volatile, oil spiked to $145 a barrel in July, then plunged below $40 in late December as the global financial crisis sent energy markets reeling. The national average gasoline price ranged from $1.62 to $4.11 a gallon.

Nowhere is it more frustrating to buy gas than in Kokomo, Ind., a flat, unassuming blue collar city surrounded by farmland 45 miles north of Indianapolis that regularly sees 10-cent or 20-cent price changes in a single day. On average, the price changes 5 cents there every day and 16 cents every week, the highest in the nation, according to GasBuddy.com.

Jim Brooks, who works at a Chrysler transmission plant in town, does his best to fill up elsewhere. “If I don’t have to buy gas in Kokomo, I don’t,” he said recently at Manjas Marathon station in Kokomo during a lunch break. He bought a soda and some chips, but not gasoline.

Gas station owners set their prices based on how much it cost to buy the last shipment of wholesale gasoline, how much the next shipment will cost, and what competitors are doing. Stations typically make very little on gasoline, because they set the price as low as possible to attract people into their more profitable convenience stores.

The price they pay for wholesale gasoline is determined by deals between refiners and distributors that are usually based on benchmarks set on exchanges, such as the New York Mercantile Exchange.

When supplies are quick to rise or fall, it means more of what frustrates drivers: Gasoline prices that seem to jump around a few cents every time they fill up, for no rhyme or reason. This year 57 U.S. metro areas have averaged price changes of at least a dime over a week. Last year just 38 cities did, and in 2011 it was just 29 cities.

Volatility is most pronounced in the four neighboring states of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. Of the biggest 50 one-day swings in gasoline prices over the past three years, 41 were in those four states. Michigan is also plagued by especially high volatility. Flint, Michigan is second only to Kokomo in average daily price changes this year.

Analysts say a major upgrade underway at BP’s enormous Whiting Refinery in Northwest Indiana that processes 413,000 barrels of oil per day and serves much of the region is partly to blame. Construction has kept output lower, especially during the first half of 2013.

When output at a local refinery falls, fuel terminals must be filled with gasoline from refineries further away. That raises shipping costs, and it lowers supplies throughout the region.

California was a trouble spot in 2012. Prices spiked there last fall to a record $4.67 per gallon after an Exxon refinery in Southern California briefly lost power at a time when a Chevron refinery in Richmond, Calif. was operating at a lower rate following a fire.

Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy policy expert at the University of California, Davis, suggests that refiners should be required by regulators to keep a minimum level of refined fuel in inventory, as is done in Europe, to help protect against sharp price spikes.

That might help people like Mike Barnett, who spends about $250 a day on fuel for his small business in Kokomo installing underground lines for telecom companies. He puts just a quarter or half a tank of gas in his vans and trucks when the price gets high and then waits for a better deal.

“You just can’t come and get gas like you used to,” he said.

AP Business Writer Tom Murphy contributed to this report from Kokomo, Ind.